[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 1 04:22:14 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 010421
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010421 
TXZ000-010545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 010421Z - 010545Z

STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN TX MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

LATE THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN OK SWWD THROUGH
NWRN TX. WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO LIFT NWD DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN SLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 KT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE WARM FRONT IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND THIS HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ADVECTED NWD OVERNIGHT. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
WRN TX JUST S OF LUBBOCK WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT N OF THE
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THE UPPER
PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE PRIMARILY OF MULTICELL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE MUCAPE SUGGEST A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL. LOW LEVEL JET IS RATHER
BROAD AND IS FORECAST TO VEER WITH TIME. THIS SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NE INTO NWRN TX MAY BE POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 04/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32620088 32420187 33590143 34129886 33619829 

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