[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 1 01:28:21 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 010131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010130 
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-010300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN AR INTO TN AND NRN MS/AL/NWRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 010130Z - 010300Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL PERSIST FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO DECREASING
THREAT WITH TIME.

SWLY FETCH OF RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FEED STORMS
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES AND PROFILER DATA
INDICATE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH MODERATELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ESPECIALLY INTO MIDDLE TN. WITH TIME...LOW
LEVEL JET WILL VEER AS UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS NEWD...WHICH WILL
DECREASE SHEAR PROFILES AND ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH CESSATION OF SURFACE HEATING...WILL CAUSE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BY THE
TIME WW 119 EXPIRES. THE THREAT HAS ALREADY ENDED OVER NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...MOST LIKELY SUB-SEVERE...IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN MS AND AL WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS.

..JEWELL.. 04/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

33399093 33639147 35659092 36258819 36518609 36498474
35388473 34098487 33508579 

WWWW