[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Apr 1 00:15:26 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 010018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010017 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-010145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI...ERN THROUGH SRN IND AND WRN OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 117...118...

VALID 010017Z - 010145Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES PERSISTS ACROSS THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW 117 AND 118.
STORMS WILL APPROACH THE ERN PORTION OF THE WATCHES BY 01Z. WW MAY
BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF EXTREME SERN IND INTO WRN OH.

EARLY THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD
THROUGH NWRN OH INTO CNTRL AND SWRN IND. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT
AROUND 30 KT. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF BEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MORE
STABLE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO OH WHERE LESS HEATING OCCURRED TODAY.
THIS COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR AS STORMS MOVE EWD.
HOWEVER...THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME NEWD DESTABILIZATION INTO WRN OH THIS EVENING.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.

..DIAL.. 04/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

40708307 39118448 38918541 40138487 41638348 

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