[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Apr 7 01:30:35 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 070129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070129 
KSZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-070300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0829 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND ERN NEB / ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154...158...

VALID 070129Z - 070300Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF WW 154 BY
02Z...THEREFORE THIS WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. 
ELSEWHERE...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING ACROSS N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB...SUGGESTING WW 158 COULD
POSSIBLY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

AS OF 0120Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS FROM BURT COUNTY NEB SWD ALONG THE MO RIVER
INTO BROWN AND JACKSON COUNTIES IN NERN KS.  DESPITE LARGELY
MERIDIONAL INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTIONS...OVERALL LINE MOVEMENT IS MORE
EWD WHICH SHOULD TAKE THIS DEVELOPMENT INTO WW 160 BY 02Z.  FARTHER
TO THE N...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE
STABILIZATION OF AIR MASS WITH MOST VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
ALONG NRN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM GREGORY AND CHARLES
MIX COUNTIES EWD TO YANKTON COUNTY IN SD.  THESE STRONGER STORMS
WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

LITTLE ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT OWING TO
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AFOREMENTIONED WIDESPREAD COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT.  THEREFORE...SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
CONTINUE...PORTIONS OF WW 158 COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY /SPECIFICALLY
FROM SW TO NE/.

..MEAD.. 04/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...UNR...

37049626 43110057 43019659 40039540 37049503 

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