[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 012117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012116 
NEZ000-KSZ000-012245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS INTO SW NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012116Z - 012245Z

AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

SURFACE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO IS SLOWLY DEEPENING...AND
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...
PERHAPS SHIFTING TOWARD THE GOODLAND AREA BY 02-03Z.  THIS WILL
OCCUR AS INITIAL SHEARING IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARD CREST OF BROADER SCALE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION.

IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF LOW...BOUNDARY LAYER IS
IN PROCESS OF RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.  SIMILAR
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED INTO AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF NORTH PLATTE
NEB BY AROUND 00Z.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY ALONG DRY LINE FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH WARM SECTOR
TO THE NORTH/EAST...BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW. THIS
IS EXPECTED BY 00Z...WITH FURTHER INCREASE EAST OF GOODLAND AND
NORTH PLATTE INTO THE HILL CITY/GRAND ISLAND AREAS THROUGH 03Z.

SHEAR PROFILES IN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE RANGING
FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL LIKELY.

..KERR.. 04/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

38460149 39060152 40330121 40970032 41179889 40969832
40199797 39309868 38699929 38490010 

WWWW