[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200118 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-200315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0818 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 802...

VALID 200118Z - 200315Z

NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW ORIENTED EAST-WEST ROUGHLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
THE 05-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY...AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO 3000 J/KG...WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  TRAINING
OF CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM COLUMBIA TO
ST. LOUIS...AND ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 IN ILLINOIS...LIKELY
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...BUT
SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO SLOWLY DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS.

..KERR.. 09/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

39049207 39189018 39188870 39158801 38838727 38278785
38078849 38168939 37959180 38219320 

WWWW