[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190634 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-190800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SWRN WI...MUCH OF IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 799...

VALID 190634Z - 190800Z

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY THIS MORNING...

STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN
EWD EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO IL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS ASCENT
ATOP CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER RELEASES 2000-3000 J/KG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  IT APPEARS CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR
SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...A FEW OF
WHICH MAY GENERATE LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SEVERE APPEAR INADEQUATE TO SUPPORT AN EWD EXPANSION OF ONGOING
WATCH.

..DARROW.. 09/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

38958967 41489216 43159252 43039033 39538803 

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