[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141157 
NCZ000-141300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141157Z - 141300Z

TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING FOR ERN NC.

REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED HURRICANE OPHELIA
CONTINUING TO TRACK NWD TOWARD THE SERN NC COAST AS INDICATED BY
LATEST TPC GUIDANCE/FORECAST.  NRN MOST RAIN BAND WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM SAMPSON TO BEAUFORT COUNTIES NC AND
THEN ESEWD OVER THE OUTER BANKS NEAR HSE.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER
CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE HAD WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION.  AREA VADS
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE
APPROACH OF OPHELIA.  THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTERACT WITH A FRICTIONALLY INDUCED INVERTED/COASTAL
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS NNEWD FROM THE CENTER OF OPHELIA TO NEAR ILM TO
30 W ECG.

..PETERS.. 09/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

34287781 35007769 36137715 36487686 36337526 35057532
34117694 

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