[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081859 
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-082100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...WRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081859Z - 082100Z

CONVECTION INTENSIFYING OVER NWRN NEB WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN WY WILL LIKELY
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND SWRN
SD. GIVEN LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE AREA DEGREE OF SVR THREAT IS
UNCERTAIN ATTM. 

STG CONVECTION OVER WRN CHERRY COUNTY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED
WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT EXISTED BENEATH MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTION WAS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL WLY FLOW ABOVE ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ROTATION. THUS CONDITIONS OVER NCENTRAL NEB APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL. EXTENT OF SVR THREAT INTO ERN NEB WILL
BE MITIGATED AS A STRONG CAP /> 200 J/KG OF MLCINH/ DUE TO RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW EXISTS.

FURTHER WEST...HIGH BASED/DEEPLY MIXED CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF
SERN/ECENTRAL WY INTO SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ AND MAY BEGIN TO POSE AN
ISOLATED SVR THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 09/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

42299923 43299987 43420057 43560181 43570358 42980409
42320399 41500396 41140372 41230195 41360048 41659968 

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