[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081738 
ILZ000-IAZ000-081915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...IA INTO PARTS OF NE MO/NW IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 774...

VALID 081738Z - 081915Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.  NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

GIVEN FAVORABLE CAPE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF IOWA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEMS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
CLUSTER OF STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  HOWEVER...AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING/STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED EAST SOUTHEAST OF DES MOINES THROUGH THE BURLINGTON
AREA...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PROPAGATION OF MOST VIGOROUS
STORMS THROUGH 20-21Z.

CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED THROUGH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING...AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER JET STREAK
WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NARROW
SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS INCREASING NEXT FEW HOURS.

..KERR.. 09/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

42239353 41789169 41669094 41409046 40709106 40789237
41459392 

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