[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052019 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-052145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052019Z - 052145Z

INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. 
CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKEWISE
INCREASE...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER W CENTRAL
SD...WITH A SLOWLY RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS
N CENTRAL SD/ERN ND.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
HEAT/DESTABILIZE...WITH 80S TO NEAR 90 TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS YIELDING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. 
HOWEVER...AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MORNING
ABR /ABERDEEN SD/ RAOB DEPICTING STRONG INVERSION NEAR 800 MB. 
NONETHELESS...CONVECTION NOW IN BARNES/GRIGGS COUNTIES IN ND --
THOUGH LIKELY STILL ELEVATED -- HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST HOUR AS UVV ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX SPREADS ACROSS THIS REGION.  CONTINUED ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW
FURTHER WEAKENING OF CAP...AND ATTM WOULD EXPECT SOME SURFACE-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT BY 05/22-23Z.  

ASSUMING STORMS DEVELOP...MODERATE/VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS.  THEREFORE...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WHICH
WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 09/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

48639726 48599535 47139514 44699707 44559873 45009973
46829832 

WWWW