[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050731 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN ND...NERN SD...NWRN AND EXTREME
W-CENTRAL MN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 767...

VALID 050731Z - 050930Z

BULK OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9Z.  MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL N OF BORDER ACROSS SERN
MB...LEAVING BEHIND RELATIVELY STABLE OUTFLOW POOL ACROSS NWRN
PORTIONS ORIGINAL WW THAT HAS LESSENED SEVERE POTENTIAL THERE. 
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING INVOF JMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD
ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF MOST FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...AND MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO FILL INVOF MN/DAKOTAS BORDER.  00Z
RAOBS...LAST FEW HOURS OF VWP DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
REGIME OF WEAKENING/BACKING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS
ABOVE LLJ.  THIS KINEMATIC PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINEAR
MODE FOR CONVECTION MOVING INTO WRN MN...WITH ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE
PROBABILITIES BECAUSE OF WEAKER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY. 
STILL...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
12Z...SUPPORTED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MOIST/40-50 KT
LLJ...AND ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG.  CELLS WITHIN LINE MAY
BRIEFLY PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS FOR HAIL...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE
RISK DOES NOT APPEAR ATTM TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WW FARTHER E ACROSS
MORE OF NRN/WRN MN.

..EDWARDS.. 09/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

44739675 44709998 48969892 48979544 

WWWW