[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 251659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251659 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-252200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY / NRN VT / NRN NH / NRN ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 251659Z - 252200Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWERING ACROSS REGION.

12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT VWPS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY IS LARGELY BEING
DRIVEN BY STRONG WAA IN THE 2-5 KM AGL LAYER...DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP
MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.  PRECIPITATION THUS FAR
HAS BEEN MAINLY LIQUID EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NRN NH WHERE SOME SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 850-700 MB FRONTAL STRUCTURE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AS IT PIVOTS NWD/NWWD AHEAD OF 
UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.  AS THIS
OCCURS...BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND
DEEPEN...WITH MORE INTENSE MESOSCALE...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.  THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DYNAMIC COOLING
OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS AREA...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SNOW INITIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS OF UPSTATE NY ACROSS THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. 
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD TEND TO DROP TO BELOW 1000 FT THIS EVENING WITH
THE CONTINUANCE OF THE STRONG SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING AND
WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.

..MEAD.. 10/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...

43537509 44597455 44897308 44957169 45667055 45926984
45256984 44217086 43757171 43307293 43067477 

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