[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Oct 25 12:41:15 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 251241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251240 
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-251745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WV/SWRN PA TO PORTIONS OF WRN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 251240Z - 251745Z

...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND INCH PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SRN WV. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NRN VA BY LATE AFTN...DEFORMATION
ZONE SHOULD SET UP ACROSS WRN PA INTO NRN WV...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
SNOW RATES IN THIS ZONE. COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC
COOLING /NOTED VIA COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN IR IMAGERY/ WILL FAVOR
SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000
FEET THIS MORNING. RECENT RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM
HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS AT 1215Z EXTENDS FROM CKB/BFD/ELZ...BUT THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY ELEVATION CHANGES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM
WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES VIA AGGREGATE EFFECTS. 

MODEL SOLNS DIFFER WITH THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE GFS BEING THE
WARMEST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WHILE THE RUC IS THE COLDEST.
TREND OF THE 06Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EARLIER
RUNS...SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP
TYPE TO RAIN AFTER 17-18Z.

..TAYLOR/PETERS.. 10/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

42287838 40357993 39088095 38238067 38707950 40047826
41597767 42187751 

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