[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Oct 24 03:14:53 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 240314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240313 
FLZ000-240515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL KEYS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 837...

VALID 240313Z - 240515Z

TORNADO WATCH 837 CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL INCLUDING THE FL
KEYS THROUGH 15Z.

HURRICANE WILMA...CURRENTLY 170 MILES SW OF NAPLES FL PER 03Z NHC
ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE A NEWD PATH TOWARD THE SWRN FL COAST DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE EXISTS IN VICINITY OF
HURRICANE SPIRAL BANDS...AND ALSO IN PROXIMITY TO STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL.

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES BASED ON AREA VAD
WIND PROFILES. AT KEY WEST...0-1KM SRH VALUES ARE AROUND 350 M2/S2
BASED ON EXTREME RADAR BASED CELL MOTIONS OF 185/60-65KT.
EMBEDDED...FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITHIN OUTER BANDS OF WILMA WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN AS BANDS GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF S-CENTRAL/SRN
FL AND THE KEYS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OTHER REGION OF CONCERN IS ACROSS CENTRAL FL...WHERE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL TO JUST NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY. MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG PERSIST ALONG THIS
AXIS...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN BREVARD COUNTY. BULK OF CG LIGHTNING
HAS BEEN WITH CELL MOVING NEWD OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND ALSO WITH
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OVER LAKE COUNTY AT 0310Z. CENTRAL FL STORMS
WILL LIKELY HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AS THEY TRACK SLOWLY NNEWD. THIS INCLUDES AN ENHANCED
RISK OF TORNADOES WITH PERSISTENT LAKE COUNTY SUPERCELL DURING NEXT
HOUR OR SO. INCREASED INTERACTION BETWEEN OUTER BANDS OF WILMA WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN THREAT OF LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 10/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...

24158134 26328234 28238300 28828177 29068107 28548034
25907942 25237924 24608005 24148128 

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