[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Oct 4 22:29:16 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 042228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042228 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN NEB...NWRN
IA...EXTREME SERN SD...SRN MN...WRN WI.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 042228Z - 050130Z

BAND OF TSTMS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN HAZARD INVOF INTENSE SFC
FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED AT 22Z FROM JUST S GLD NEWD NEAR
GRI...SUX...EAU LINE.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OVER PORTIONS NRN
IA/SRN MN AND WRN WI WHERE INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
RICHEST...WITH 2-2.5 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES IN SOME AREAS.  ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE DECREASES WITH SWWD EXTENT...LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 1-2
INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGEST CORES ACROSS NEB PORTION OF
DISCUSSION AREA.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT ON
BROADER SCALE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS
REMAINING FARTHER SW FOR TIME BEING.  LLJ -- PRESENTLY OBSERVED AT
30-40 KT ACROSS REGION PER VWP/PROFILER DATA -- IS FCST TO INCREASE
TO 40-60 KT RANGE AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. 
ORIENTATION OF LLJ SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM WARM SECTOR INDICATES
FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.  WITH MEAN WIND VECTOR ALIGNED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE...AND STRENGTH OF FRONT ITSELF --
EXPECT LIFT TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GENERATING CONVECTION THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY TRAINING OVER MANY OF SAME AREAS. 
GPS DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS EACH INDICATE 1.75-2 INCH PW BETWEEN
LNK-EAU...REPRESENTING LOW LEVEL INFLOW SECTOR FROM MO RIVER REGION
NEWD.

REF SPC WW 830 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST
INFORMATION REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR IA/NEB/SD PART OF THIS
CORRIDOR.

..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

40479930 40709952 41539874 44169555 45169140 44339099
43799265 43369354 42139572 40149936 

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