[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Nov 29 01:12:45 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 290110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290110 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SE ND AND WRN/NRN MN

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 

VALID 290110Z - 290545Z

BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM ERN SD/SE ND INTO NW MN
THIS EVENING. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER WILL BE MOST
PROLONGED THROUGH 06Z ACROSS SE ND INTO PORTIONS OF NW/NCNTRL
MN...WHILE SNOW RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MID EVENING
ACROSS ERN SD.

VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE OVER NRN IA/SRN MN CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH 985 MB SFC LOW CENTERED OVER SE MN AT 01Z.
ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...DEFORMATION AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED THIS EVENING BETWEEN MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/
FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT AND TROWAL /TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT/
AIRSTREAM ARCING ACROSS NRN MN/FAR ERN DAKOTAS PER LATEST MODEL
DIAGNOSTICS/CROSS SECTIONS.

MAINTENENCE OF EXISTING RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW
ACROSS NW/NCNTRL MN INTO ERN SD APPEARS LIKELY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW RATES GRADUALLY DECREASING ON THE SRN EXTENT
ACROSS ERN SD. SIMILAR TO 00Z ABERDEEN RAOB...RUC FCST SOUNDINGS FOR
SE ND INTO NW/NCNTRL MN FEATURE DEEPLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES THIS EVENING...WITH AMPLE UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH THE HEAVIER BANDS. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG N/NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS...WITH ERN
DAKOTAS WSR-88D VAD DATA/00Z ABERDEEN RAOB SAMPLING 50-70 KT WINDS
IN THE LOWEST FEW KM.

..GUYER.. 11/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

48859460 48109224 46819409 45499604 43689654 43529717
43809812 44759887 46509808 48319615 

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