[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 290013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290013 
FLZ000-GAZ000-290145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 290013Z - 290145Z

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE CNTRL FL
PANHANDLE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONLY A LIMITED THREAT INLAND. A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS OFFSHORE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETREAT NWD. 

EARLY THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE N
CNTRL FL PENINSULA NWWD THROUGH THE NERN GULF JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
FL PANHANDLE THEN INLAND OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. LATEST RUC
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S
OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT ONLY MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY. CELLS
WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AND PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO AS
THEY CROSS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NERN GULF WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IS ENHANCED. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AND WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE INLAND. UNLESS THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT
NWD...THE INLAND SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 11/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

29398332 29338435 30328546 30888524 30208339 

WWWW