[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Nov 28 10:45:32 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 281042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281042 
LAZ000-MSZ000-281215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN LA AND FAR SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281042Z - 281215Z

THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS...TO THE SOUTH OF WW 882.

WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

AT 10Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...
WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY PER LIGHTNING DATA ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LA.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FOR THIS REGION
INDICATED THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS
/MUCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY NORMAL TO THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  THE
SHEAR ORIENTATION SUGGESTS DISCRETE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...
WHILE STRONG EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES UP TO 300-400 M2/S2 SUPPORT STORM
ROTATION AND POTENTIAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STORMS INLAND ACROSS LA TO SRN MS
ARE ELEVATED...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.  RUC ALSO INDICATED A GREATER THREAT FOR SURFACE
BASED STORMS SHOULD OCCUR EWD INTO SERN LA/SERN MS LATER THIS
MORNING...GIVEN THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING AIDING IN
DESTABILIZATION.

..PETERS.. 11/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29569260 31359165 31348959 29268968 28999079 

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