[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Nov 28 09:30:54 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 280928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280928 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-281030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 881...

VALID 280928Z - 281030Z

DESPITE A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS VALID PORTION OF
WW 881.

AT 09Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB
250 J/KG/ ACROSS WW 881.  LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A MARKED DECREASE IN
CG LIGHTNING SINCE ABOUT 08Z FROM SRN IL TO NRN MS...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF THE DECREASING INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING ALOFT
SHIFTING NEWD INTO IL AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THIS
DOWNWARD TREND IN INSTABILITY/LIGHTNING GENERATION...DEEP LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SRH VALUES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
WITHIN THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING EWD ACROSS WW 881.  INDIVIDUAL
EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS...WITH SHEAR COUPLETS...ARE MOVING NNE AT
50-60 KT ACROSS SRN IL AND NEWD AT 50 KT ACROSS NRN MS INTO WRN TN.

..PETERS.. 11/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...

33849042 35788934 36918953 39958922 39858723 38498710
36688712 33758827 

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