[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Nov 15 13:49:29 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 151348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151347 
IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-151745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NEB/FAR NE KS INTO WRN IA/SW MN

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 151347Z - 151745Z

A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT/OCNLY MDT SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FROM
FAR ERN NEB/FAR NE KS INTO WRN IA/SW MN. INCREASINGLY STRONG NWLY
WINDS WILL FURTHER ADVERSELY IMPACT LOCAL CONDITIONS.

LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW OCCURRING WITHIN THE WRN
PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. SIMILAR TO OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...12Z RUC/06Z NAM AND LATEST SREF PRECIP-TYPE CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A SIMILAR CHANGE-OVER WILL OCCUR PROGRESSIVELY EWD ACROSS
WRN IA/SW MN THROUGH 15Z-18Z...COINCIDENT WITH CAA/ONSET OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION RATES. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRIMARILY
FOCUSED ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH...WITH WEAK STATIC
STABILITY CONTRIBUTING TO SOME ENHANCED NORTH-SOUTH BANDING. IN
ADDITION...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NWLY WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE ALREADY NOTED WITHIN
EARLY MORNING NELIGH NEB PROFILER DATA PER 40-50 KTS IN LOWEST FEW
KM.

..GUYER.. 11/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

44329637 44139387 43229374 40889440 39989513 39329609
40059705 42749693 

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