[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 130411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130411 
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-130545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...SRN MO...WRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 860...

VALID 130411Z - 130545Z

SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 860 LATE THIS
EVENING.

A COUPLE OF SQUALL LINES WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND COOLING
CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED OFF THE DRYLINE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MOIST AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM SWRN AR NEWD TO SRN MO WAS CONTRIBUTING
TO MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD POOLS. MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-65 KT WAS
RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUITABLE FOR CONTINUED STORM
ORGANIZATION. BREAKS OR CELLS WITHIN TRAILING PORTIONS OF EXISTING
SQUALL LINES MAY ACQUIRE ROTATION WITH ISOLATED TORNADO STILL
POSSIBLE GIVEN 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 PER DEQUEEN AR
PROFILER.

..CARBIN.. 11/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

33679309 33689623 37679300 37639069 

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