[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Nov 13 01:52:18 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 130151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130151 
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SWRN MO AND WRN/CENTRAL AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 860...

VALID 130151Z - 130345Z

THREAT FOR SVR STORMS INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HRS ACROSS WW 860...ERN OK...SWRN
MO AND WRN AR. 

LATEST PROFILER DATA FROM DE QUEEN AR INDICATES VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR...200-300 MS/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH...WAS IN PLACE OVER MUCH
OF WW 860. MODIFIED 00Z SGF AND SHV SOUNDINGS INDICATES AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPES REMAIN OVER MUCH OF WW 860. SUFFICIENT
LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LVL WAA
SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE GIVEN PRONOUNCED AND STRONG WLY
COMPONENT OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON
REGIONAL PROFILERS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOP CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ALONG STATIONARY DRYLINE ACROSS ERN
OK...ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF WW 860...AS MID LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

..CROSBIE.. 11/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

37699454 33629661 33579309 37619102 

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