[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 310445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310445 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-310545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...TX AND OK PNHDLS...ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358...359...360...

VALID 310445Z - 310545Z

VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED NEAR AND NORTH OF A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS SERN
CO. THIS FORCING WAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE ELEVATED BOWING
SEGMENT OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST TOWARD THE WRN KS BORDER AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FEED ACROSS SERN CO AND NERN NM AND GIVEN STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS KS...ONLY A SMALL HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY EXIST AS THESE
STORMS MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER SOUTH....ACROSS VALID AREAS OF WATCH 360...STORMS APPEAR TO
HAVE CONGEALED INTO A SMALL MCS FROM AMA AREA SWWD TO CVS AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THIS CONVECTION...COUPLED WITH STRONG
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FROM UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NM...SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT
EAST OF WATCH 360 AND ANOTHER WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT PRESENT.

AN ISOLATED LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL PERSISTS OVER NERN LEA COUNTY NM
AND WAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS
STORM...WATCH 359 WILL EXPIRE AT 06Z. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT OF ISOLATED STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS SERN NM AS UPPER FORCING
MOVES EAST AND ACTS ON RESIDUAL WARM/MOIST AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF
LINCOLN...DE BACA...AND CHAVES COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A NEW WATCH IS
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED AFTER WATCH 359 EXPIRES AT 06Z.

..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

33000195 32930377 32960460 34640413 35230332 38290282
38320391 38840366 39700295 38330258 38330111 

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