[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 302005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302005 
NMZ000-302200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/SE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 302005Z - 302200Z

WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.  THIS APPEARS PRIMARILY
IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  STRONGER MID/
UPPER FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN TO NORTH OF REGION...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG.  MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT STRONGER FLOW IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW MEXICO BY 31/00Z.  THIS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR...SUPPORTING RISK OF AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO.

..KERR.. 05/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

34460523 35070425 34700386 33550382 32770422 32370512
32340584 33150567 

WWWW