[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301848 
LAZ000-TXZ000-302045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA AND SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 301848Z - 302045Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SERN TX
INTO SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

AIR MASS ACROSS SERN TX AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA IS GRADUALLY
RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY NOW DECAYING ACROSS
THE W-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RUC SUGGEST 100MB MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY IN PLACE AT
18Z.

LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTH OF GALVESTON BAY SWWD INTO THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER JUST SE OF
CLL COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 20-25KT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT APPEARS THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...WITH EMBEDDED LONG-LIVED CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
/1.8-2 IN/ AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY MAY POSE
A THREAT OF BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS.

..BANACOS.. 05/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

29489467 29649402 29749324 29579250 29709162 30159148
30649162 30999176 31319218 31519291 31739500 31499559
30899618 30319621 29369572 28919538 

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