[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301632 
NMZ000-COZ000-301830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL CO/N CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301632Z - 301830Z

RISK OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN
WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY AS EARLY AS 18-19Z
TIME FRAME.

THICK LOW-CLOUD COVER NORTH OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOW
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTH OF FRONT...SOUTH/WEST OF PUEBLO AND LA
JUNTA CO...INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING WITH ABUNDANT INSOLATION. 
CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NEXT FEW
HOURS...SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT
BASIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS/IMMEDIATELY TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON. 
CAPE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH EXIT REGION OF 30
TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.

..KERR.. 05/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

37740713 38280680 38640593 38180558 37680476 37390400
36840363 36150386 35730499 35870619 36300672 36930680 

WWWW