[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301539 
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-301745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT/WRN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301539Z - 301745Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH
CAPE LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UTAH/
WESTERN COLORADO.  AS THIS OCCURS...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY...SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...CURRENTLY EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA...APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO
AND NORTHEAST OF THE PRICE UT/GRAND JUNCTION CO AREAS BY THE 18-21Z
TIME FRAME.  THIS AREA WILL BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF 30 TO 40 KT
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL
MIXED BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.

..KERR.. 05/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...

40531032 41090904 40740758 39720704 37610788 37160999
37951041 39681080 

WWWW