[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291839 
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-292045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NV...S-CENTRAL/SWRN ID...AND NRN UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291839Z - 292045Z

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN ID...NERN NV...AND INTO NWRN/NRN UT.
REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SLOW-MOVING...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NWRN NV AND NERN CA IS SPREADING
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EWD ACROSS THE NERN GREAT BASIN. LARGE-SCALE
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION COINCIDENT
WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAX AS UPPER LOW MIGRATES EWD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING TOWERING CU ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NERN NV AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS OF 1830Z
NEAR THE NV/ID BORDER. UVV IN THIS AREA IS BEING ENHANCED BY
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS NWD INTO S-CENTRAL/SWRN ID.

INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN SUSTAINED/LONG-LIVED CELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

..BANACOS.. 05/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

40051499 41491554 42431675 43111670 43311613 43341515
42861390 42301280 41271162 40821136 40521144 40201232
40071355 40151420 

WWWW