[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291756 
OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...FAR SERN CO...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291756Z - 292000Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF SERN
CO/NERN NM AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE PRESENT TIME. 

AT 1730Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SWD TO BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM TAD TO 25N CAO TO EHA. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF NERN NM...AND INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS PRESENTLY IN THE 50S SHOULD MIX DOWN GIVEN
GENERALLY DIFFUSE SURFACE WIND FIELD. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000
J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. 

MITIGATING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AND SFC-6KM SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS NEAR THE
STALLED FRONT AND SPREADING OFF THE FOOTHILLS....WITH BRIEF STRONG
CORES CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED. DEVELOPING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30F OR GREATER MAY ALSO YIELD STRONG
DOWNBURSTS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. DEVELOPING CONVECTION
SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD AT 10-15 KT.

..BANACOS.. 05/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

37450529 37500448 37210402 37070339 37140254 37080211
36700200 35520193 34930206 34810231 34910417 35230496
35450538 35890570 

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