[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272234 
TXZ000-280000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272234Z - 280000Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH CELLS THAT MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. HAIL AND MARGINAL DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING WSW TO
ENE ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AXIS
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 1000
J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE
STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF MORE
CELLS DEVELOP THAN ARE EXPECTED...A WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
EAST OF WW 338.

..BROYLES.. 05/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...

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