[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272021 
NYZ000-PAZ000-272145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TIER OF NY AND NERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337...

VALID 272021Z - 272145Z

CONTINUE WW. 

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN REGION OF MID-LEVEL
COOLING AND MODERATELY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS S-CENTRAL NY
INTO NERN PA. STORMS ARE MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 15-20 KT...WITH
SOME PROPAGATIONAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SUSTAINED MID-LEVEL
ROTATION IN LONG-LIVED CELLS.  STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN SCHUYLER AND STEUBEN COUNTIES IN NY. A RIGHT-MOVING STORM
WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER ERN ONTARIO COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE
ESEWD INTO THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GIVEN CELLULAR
STRUCTURE...PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED DOWNDRAFTS. INSTABILITY
REMAINS MARGINAL...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. ONCE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY.

..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

40727701 41617754 42417769 42907748 43127691 43457590
43317516 42407442 41977416 41717425 41377539 

WWWW