[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 262024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262024 
NMZ000-262200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 262024Z - 262200Z

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG/WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED...

STRONG SFC RIDGE WEDGED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM HAS
FORCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NM
WHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED. RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION...SBCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...AND STRONG
BUOYANCY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SAN MATEO MTNS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NRN NM. 
SUFFICIENT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND
POSSIBLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD THE SPINE OF THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
ENCOUNTER COOLER AIRMASS OF ERN NM LATER THIS EVENING. UNTIL
THEN...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 05/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

33730827 36080758 36660470 34550531 32840532 

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