[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261822 
IAZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-262015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...S-CENTRAL/SRN MN...NRN IA...AND FAR NERN
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261822Z - 262015Z

SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MAX HEATING PERIOD ACROSS ERN SD...S-CENTRAL/SRN MN...NRN
IA...AND FAR NERN NEB. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
UNFOCUSED...HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS TONIGHT. REGION WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IF AN ORGANIZED
THREAT AREA DEVELOPS. 

MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT /-24C TO -25C/
WILL ROTATE ESEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...SW OF QUASI-STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW EVIDENT ACROSS
NWRN ONTARIO. DESPITE LACK OF FOCUSED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN DEEP
WNWLY FLOW REGIME...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5C/KM FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH 500MB WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS...DESPITE SFC
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND
SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS
DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD /MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING/. IN ADDITION...LOW WBZ HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ALSO...ESEWD STORM MOTIONS OF 30-40KT AND LOW
BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING AFTER SUNSET.

..BANACOS.. 05/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

45439487 45329355 43819162 42829136 42469230 42389494
42309725 42449884 42809947 44520062 44840057 45259979 

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