[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250056 
KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0996
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CO...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323...326...

VALID 250056Z - 250230Z

NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO REPLACE ONE OR BOTH OF THESE...IN ORDER TO
CONSOLIDATE THREAT FOR SEVERE OVER WRN KS/SERN CO AS MCS GENERALLY
MOVES SEWD.  LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM N-CENTRAL OK
WNWWD ACROSS SWRN KS AND INTO SRN PORTION OF MCS -- WHERE
HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS ARE RIGHT-MOVING SSEWD OR SWD ATTM ACROSS
PORTIONS KIOWA/CHEYENNE COUNTIES CO.  850 MB DEW POINT 15 C NOTED AT
DDC...BENEATH 8-9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES IN 700-500 MB LAYER.  THIS
SUPPORTS MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG.  AS NEAR SFC LAYER DECOUPLES WITH
LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC SHOULD
STRENGTHEN.  THIS WILL YIELD VERY FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS
AS HIGH AS 50-60 KT FOR ANY ACTIVITY WHICH CAN SURVIVE PASSAGE
THROUGH AXIS OF CINH THAT IS STILL ANALYZED N-S ACROSS WRN KS. 
FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GROWING/DEEPENING COLD POOL MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO AIR THAT PROCESS.  THEREFORE...SWRN KS AND MORE OF
W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL KS IS LIKELY TO NEED WW COVERAGE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

38210207 36930202 36970493 39160510 39160223 40000199
40029935 38219981 38210202 38229981 40029934 39639886
39069852 38369831 37759841 37409870 37059917 36979939
36970025 36980203 

WWWW