[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242042 
ARZ000-OKZ000-242215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK AND MUCH OF AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320...

VALID 242042Z - 242215Z

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD POOL IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE
SEWD ATTM...SITUATED JUST SW OF KTUL-KMKO AND THEN INTO NWRN AR.  CU
FIELD WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF SWELLING WITH GLACIATED TOWERS SHOWING UP
ATTM ACROSS ECNTRL OK IN DOWNSTREAM VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  PRIND
THAT STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GROW STRONGER...WITH
ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING SEWD WITHIN THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS INTO WCNTRL/SWRN AR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS CINH IS ERODED. 
FARTHER EAST...SURFACE BASED TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING CLOSER TO THE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL AR...INTERMIXED WITH THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION.  

MODEST 35-40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE MCV OVER NERN OK
WILL AUGMENT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL...PRIMARILY DURING EARLY PART OF STORM LIFECYCLES. 
BUT...GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW ATOP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STORM STRUCTURES SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS AND
ACCELERATE ESEWD INTO WCNTRL/CNTRL AR LATER THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

..RACY.. 05/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

33799469 36259564 36259248 33639156 

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