[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232136 
VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232136Z - 232300Z

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA/FRONT RANGE OF NERN NM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IF INCREASING TRENDS CAN CONTINUE AND THREAT BECOMES MORE
THAN ISOLATED...A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 00Z. 

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
WITH NO MLCINH EXISTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM. MODERATE
LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW OF 10-15 KTS BENEATH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 30 KTS
/OR EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS/ IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL TYPE
STORMS. SELY LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AROUND 20 KTS SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO LOWER TERRAIN GRADUALLY...SINCE
MLCINH OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK PANHANDLE REMAINS AOB 50
J/KG. IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK
PANHANDLE SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE IN THESE AREAS. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...SINCE RELATIVELY HIGH
LCL HEIGHTS EXIST OVER THE AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

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