[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200952 
SCZ000-GAZ000-201045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SC MIDLANDS SWWD INTO CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 200952Z - 201045Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
INTENSIFYING STORMS S OF WW 298 AND SE OF WW 299. THOUGH AN
ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO FROM APPROXIMATELY 30 S OF SPA TO 25 NE OF MCN WITH A
GENERAL EWD MOTION OF 20-30 KTS. REGIONAL VWPS AND PRESSURE FALLS
NOTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN /PER 09Z
MESOANALYSIS/ BOTH SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN IN PLACE E OF THE APPALACHIANS.
PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE-INVERSION AND ROOTED WITHIN AN AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE
STORMS...HOWEVER RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS ABOVE WSWLY LLJ SUGGEST
THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED. 

THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL CAN
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED FORWARD MOTION /AND DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL/ OWING TO PROPAGATION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 05/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

33148356 33988262 34238187 34188022 33348028 32438182
32138300 32588366 

WWWW