[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200918 
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-201015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0418 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY SEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN INTO NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297...299...

VALID 200918Z - 201015Z

THROUGH 10-11Z...APPEARS GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS MIDDLE TN. TO THE NW...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS WW 297. THIS WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW COMPLEX SURFACE
PATTERN OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER REACH OF THE OH RIVER. MOST
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ATTM APPEARS TO BE ENE-WSW ORIENTED LINE OF
STORMS FROM W OF BWG TO S OF PAH MOVING SEWD AT 35-40 KTS. RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER MIDDLE TN REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...THOUGH STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION.

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD...POSSIBLY BEING ENHANCED
BY 1) INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS LINE
SEWD THROUGH BNA TO N OF CHA...AS WELL AS 2) BY LOCALLY STRONGER 850
MB CONVERGENCE/WAA --PER REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS--.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY QUICKLY DEVELOPING
TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
OVER WW 297 IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND THIS WW MAY BE CANCELLED
PRIOR TO EXPIRATION AT 11Z.

..MEAD.. 05/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...

37689083 38378698 35208256 33488348 35738810 36249085 

WWWW