[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180340 
KSZ000-NEZ000-180445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...S CNTRL THROUGH ERN NEB AND NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285...

VALID 180340Z - 180445Z

SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG
THE SQUALL LINE FROM ERN SD THROUGH ERN NEB AND INTO N CNTRL KS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL 
DECREASE. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY RAIN
FROM N CNTRL KS NEWD INTO S CNTRL NEB...BUT SOME HAIL WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WW 285 WILL EXPIRE AT 05Z AND
ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PORTION OF SQUALL LINE FROM NERN NEB THROUGH SD HAS UNDERGONE A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND AS THE LEADING GUST FRONT MOVED EAST OF
THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND INTO A MORE STRONGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER SW...SOME BACKBUILDING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALONG
THE S CNTRL NEB PORTION OF THE LINE WHERE STRONG LIFT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A SLY 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE SEWD
MOVING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS ALONG THIS PART OF THE
LINE HAVE BECOME ORIENTED SW-NE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MID-UPPER
FLOW. THIS SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN.

..DIAL.. 05/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD...

39889935 40729859 41629755 40049725 39059978 

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