[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180119 
SDZ000-NEZ000-180315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN SD THROUGH CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285...

VALID 180119Z - 180315Z

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST THROUGH SD AND NEB. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NEB PORTION OF THE LINE. PORTION OF
LINE NOW OVER SRN SD WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OF WW 285 BY 02Z...BUT
ANOTHER WW EAST OF SD PORTION OF 285 IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM NWRN SD SEWD INTO S CNTRL SD
THEN SWD INTO EXTREME S CNTRL NEB NEAR THE KS BORDER. THE LINE IS
MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30 KT AND IS PASSING THROUGH THE AXIS OF
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. FARTHER EAST...THE
00Z ABERDEEN SOUNDING SHOWS PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION AND
MODEST CAPE. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
GUST FRONT AND SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ANOTHER FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NEB. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE LINE BEGINS MOVING
EAST OF THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.

..DIAL.. 05/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

40439928 42949894 43899950 45370088 45670048 45199893
44209739 42729705 40329836 

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