[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130056 
OKZ000-TXZ000-130200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS/LOW ROLLING PLAINS INTO SWRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 260...

VALID 130056Z - 130200Z

A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO ACCOMMODATE ONGOING
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

AS OF 0040Z...LBB RADAR DATA SHOW SEVERAL SUPERCELLS IN PROGRESS
FROM NEAR EVW ENEWD TO W OF CDS AS WELL AS TO THE E OF LBB OVER
CROSBY COUNTY. LBB VWP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 WHEN MODIFIED FOR
OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS. GIVEN AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS...LCL
HEIGHTS AROUND 1 KM AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...EXPECT
TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE BEYOND CURRENT WW EXPIRATION TIME OF 02Z.
THUS...A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT OWING TO INCREASED COLD
POOL PRODUCTION/OUTFLOW DOMINANCE AS WELL AS INCREASING CAP AS
BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS. HOWEVER...TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..MEAD.. 05/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

34660227 35549937 33909938 33050239 

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