[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122337 
MOZ000-130100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0847
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS INTO NWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 259...

VALID 122337Z - 130100Z

DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS SERN PORTIONS
OF WW AREA FROM NEAR STJ SWD THROUGH TOP AND EVENTUALLY THE KANSAS
CITY METRO AREA. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

AS OF 2322Z...PLEASANT HILL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED EVOLVING LINE
SEGMENT/LEWP STRUCTURE FROM ANDREW/BUCHANAN COUNTIES IN NWRN MO SWWD
SHAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES IN NERN KS. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THIS MESOSCALE COMPLEX IS EVOLVING NEAR A SURFACE LOW WITHIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES EWD INTO WRN MO WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BOUNDARY-LAYER IS COMPARATIVELY WARMER
/ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF I-70/ SUGGESTING AN INCREASED DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL OWING TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

STRONG REAR INFLOW JET EVIDENT IN PLEASANT HILL BASE VELOCITY DATA
OVER WABAUNSEE...SHAWNEE..OSAGE INTO DOUGLAS COUNTIES MAY PROMOTE A
FURTHER EWD ACCELERATION OF THIS PORTION OF CONVECTIVE LINE
APPROACHING THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 01Z.

DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY WELL CONTINUE E OF CURRENT WW...REQUIRING
THE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH.

..MEAD.. 05/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...

39919472 40299459 40439365 39689268 38819273 38539313
38569396 38689445 

WWWW