[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120402 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-120500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB AND NERN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252...254...

VALID 120402Z - 120500Z

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL SPREAD EWD FROM
CNTRL INTO ERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 252.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A W-E LINE OF ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTMS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM NE OF MCK TO W OF LNK GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF 252. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG SLY LLJ ATOP STABILIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER IS LIKELY SUSTAINING
ONGOING ACTIVITY. PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INFLUX 
OF 11-12 G/KG AIR BENEATH 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. 

AS LLJ SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF ERN NEB. IN ADDITION
TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ ALONG WITH TRAINING STORMS WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH RATES APPROACHING 1.5 TO 2.5"/HOUR.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED
WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 252.

..MEAD.. 05/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

41930124 41949670 41869611 40409559 39709550 39649667
40399674 40430128 

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