[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110254 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-110500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...SRN MN...NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 110254Z - 110500Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS
REGION.

BAND OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS SD INTO
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER APPEARS TO BE BASED
NEAR THE 700 MB LEVEL...ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ABOVE
FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER.  NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
ACROSS MANITOBA TOWARD ONTARIO APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING
FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
THIS FAR NORTH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. 
HOWEVER...AS INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE-80
CORRIDOR NEXT FEW HOURS...RISK OF HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS
LIKELY WILL DIMINISH.

..KERR.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

42629716 42919680 43289612 43709449 43629299 43539171
43349070 42669103 42769138 42879275 42929411 42839518 

WWWW