[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110214 
IAZ000-NEZ000-110415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0914 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN NEB...WRN/CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 243...

VALID 110214Z - 110415Z

CONTINUE WW 243.

INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...AND INITIAL ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.
ONE...NOW SHIFTING EAST OF GRAND ISLAND...IS OCCURRING NEAR WEAK
WAVE ALONG SURFACE FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING
INTO CREST OF BROADER SCALE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE.  SECOND CLUSTER
APPEARS TO BE WHERE LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTS FRONTAL ZONE WEST OF
DES MOINES.

LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND ASCENT OF
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR...WILL SUPPORT UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO LARGER
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS.  MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG WILL MAINTAIN HAIL THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 
TORNADO THREAT MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS
RADIATIONAL INVERSION DEEPENS SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES FOCUSED IN BAROCLINIC ZONE TO NORTH. 
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...HOWEVER...COULD INCREASE ACROSS IOWA...AS
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EVOLVES...POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION.

..KERR.. 05/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

41389802 41979719 42669618 43159478 43209317 42909235
42439192 41779226 41379310 41459347 41309524 40759815 

WWWW