[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102341 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-110045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0808
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SE WY...WRN NEB...NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102341Z - 110045Z

WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
NORTH OF DENVER...WHERE MOISTENING UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF SURFACE
FRONT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER.  CAPE
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS STILL RELATIVELY WEAK AT AROUND 500 J/KG
...BUT WESTERLY ADVECTION OF 50+ SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE
FROM WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
EVENING.  MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHORTLY...WITH FURTHER INCREASE LIKELY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

GIVEN FAVORABLE DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF
GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW...AND STRENGTHENING FORCING ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES THIS
EVENING...MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. 
LARGE HAIL APPEARS PRIMARY THREAT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS COULD INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 05/10/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

40130494 40570521 41500506 41850432 41700342 41620209
41860017 41799938 40889902 40000009 39770164 39650338 

WWWW