[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102306 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-110030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SWRN TX...FAR SERN NM...THE ERN TX/OK
PANHANDLES...AND WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241...242...

VALID 102306Z - 110030Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 241 AND 242 CONTINUE IN EFFECT THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX...FAR SERN NM...AND WRN OK.

AT 2245Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR THE DRYLINE. MOST
INTENSE/LARGE STORM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER NEAR
HOBBS...WITH PROPAGATIONAL MOTION NNEWD AT 40KT. OTHER STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED IN THE BIG BEND AREA AND ALSO ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WATCH AREAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS HOT BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES /MID 80S TO LOW 90S/ CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT
MORE CYCLONIC AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES EWD TOWARD ERN TX
THIS EVENING.

MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO ONGOING ACTIVITY IS MOST PRONOUNCED
IN MAF VICINITY. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30KT IN SWRN TX SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN WW 241 WHICH COVERS THE TX
PANHANDLE...SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WEST OF SOUTH.
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40F NEAR THE CENTRAL
TX PANHANDLE STORMS MAY ALSO PROMOTE LOCALIZED STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS/ISOLATED DRY MICROBURSTS.

..BANACOS.. 05/10/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

30290234 29740249 29540331 29630396 30020447 30710476
32480447 33810369 35280223 37080056 37089903 37029827
34659938 33090088 32410153