[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080407 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS...WRN MN...CNTRL/NE NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228...

VALID 080407Z - 080530Z

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 228 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 06Z.

BRIEF STRONG GUSTS CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA...EAST OF WW 228.  HOWEVER...STABILIZATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER IN REMAINING WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF OUTFLOW IS
PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN THE CASE...WITH STRONGER BAND OF MID/UPPER FORCING
PIVOTING NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...ACROSS NORFOLK INTO THE
KEARNEY NEB AREA...DIMINISHING TRENDS TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAVE
BEEN SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  FORCING/LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING IN CONFLUENCE WEST OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME MID-LEVEL WARMING...BUT ACTIVITY STILL
APPEARS TO BE BASED ABOVE DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. 
RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST PEAK UPDRAFT INTENSITIES MAY BE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH...AND CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO LIFT AWAY
FROM THE KEARNEY/GRAND ISLAND AREAS SHORTLY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
FALL IN SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CELLS MAY PERSIST ACROSS NORFOLK INTO
AREAS SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS THROUGH AT LEAST 06-08Z.

..KERR.. 05/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

46599646 46449487 45549392 44109439 42709592 42469682
41579765 41029886 41209942 42339805 43479699 44839693 

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