[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 052113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052112 
NMZ000-TXZ000-052245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM...FAR WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052112Z - 052245Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THAT DEVELOP/MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM/FAR NRN
CHIHUAHUA MX INTO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY OF SCENTRAL NM/FAR WRN
TX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISO SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND MOVE INTO THE PECOS VALLEY THROUGH 01Z.
OVERALL THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
ALONG AXES UP BOTH THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS RIVER VALLEYS. MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE PER RECENT TRENDS OF WSM PROFILER
DATA. PER 20Z RUC40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR OF
40-50 KTS COMBINED WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG ABOVE A DEEPLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO 700 MB WILL BE SUPPORT OF ROTATING STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL. THREAT FOR SVR SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 02Z...WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

31850645 32140701 32900754 34040722 34650623 34320465
33410416 32250421 31180513 31260577 

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